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Pick 'em Up
Fri, 01 Dec 2006
PICK 'EM with ALLAN DROST of bet365
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NFL
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LAST WEEKS WINNING PARLAY-PICKS – INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5), DALLAS (-8.0),
CHICAGO (+3.0) AND CLEVELAND (-2.0) - ONLY GREEN BAY (-4.5) LOST IN OT!
PEAKING AT THE RIGHT TIME
Several teams seem to have stepped their game up a gear at a very crucial
time of the season, namely when the playoff spots are being disputed
between the various contenders. Obviously Indy still standout as
favourites
on bet365 to receive the jewellery at Super Bowl XL in Detroit on Feb
5th.
Currently the 8-2 Broncos look the biggest challengers from the AFC but
don’t forget the rejuvenated Steelers who will welcome back QB
Roethlisberger for the Monday night football clash. This together with
visiting the Seahawks on Christmas Eve might well prove the biggest
obstacles to making history with a perfect 16-0 run.
Personally I don’t fancy them to do it as motivation and injury concerns
are known to play their part come Christmas time - time will tell.
Speaking
of Seattle they are already asking serious questions of the other teams
in
the NFC, although the Buccaneers, the Bears and the Cowboys are currently
on streaks that would suggest it to be a good idea to keep them in mind,
at
least for a division title.
bet365’s latest Super Bowl prices: Indianapolis +125, Pittsburgh +1000,
Seattle +1000, Denver +1000, Carolina +1200, New England, San Diego
+1400,
others on bet365 website.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
BET LIVE IN PLAY – Su Nov 27 – 4:15 pm EST/21:15 GMT
This proves to be a cracking contest between two of the best teams in the
NFC so far this season. Interestingly, in their 5 home games so far, the
Seahawks have only met 2 teams with a winning percentage above the .500
mark, and both have been very close contests (Hawks-Cowboys 13-10 in week
7
and Hawks-Falcons 21-18 in week 2).
Still, I won’t hesitate to pick Seahawks here for several reasons: First
off, a 7-2 overall record along with 6 straight wins and a perfect 5-0
home
record doesn’t lie; the team has averaged 28 points per game at home
against the Giants average score-line away from home of 20 points. No
visiting team has managed to put more than a maximum of 20 points on the
board at Qwest field, and last but not least there is a difference in
experience at the QB-position where young Eli Manning has thrown nine
interceptions against Hasselbeck’s five and recorded six fumbles against
Hasselbeck’s three.
With the Seahawks defence having stepped their game up a gear this season
and Shaun Alexander providing the Seahawks offence with an alternative
option when finding themselves in a third-and-short situation, I am
confident that the Seahawks will cover the 4.5 point margin in this live
match-up where they can secure the NFC West division title if they win
and
the Rams lose to the Texans. (live betting available via our ‘In-Play
Console’).
Pick 1: Seattle (-4.5) @ -110.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ KC CHIEFS
BET LIVE IN PLAY – Su Nov 27 – 1:00 pm EST/18:00 GMT
The three-fold Super Bowl winners from New England are very lucky to find
themselves in probably the weakest of the AFC divisions so, in spite of a
pretty mediocre season this far they are well on their way to the
division
title and a place in the Playoffs. The normally rock-solid Pat’s defence
have struggled this season, allowing more points on average than the
amount
being scored by Brady and the rest of the offensive line (Patriots
average
score-line for the season is 22.7 points for and 25.3 points against).
However, the Patriots defensive line does seem strengthened, following
the
return of all-important line-backer Teddi Bruschi who has helped the team
to win 3 of the last 4 games after returning from injury. On Sunday they
are facing the Chiefs who hold a 3-1 home record, but its worth noting
that
the Chiefs have yet to play a winning team at Arrowhead. The Patriots
have
been given a 3 points start and this together with the fact that the
Chiefs
boat have seemed very rocky lately, clearly demonstrated in week 10 where
they only managed a single field goal on the scoreboard against Buffalo
may
be the reason why punters are currently lumping on New England +3, which
we’ve had to adjust from -110 to -115.
Pick 2: New England (+3.0) @ +125.
However, the value seems to be even bigger on the ‘Total points’ market
in
the same match, where the line is currently set to a massive 51 @ -110.
If
we take a look at the average points scored by the two teams, this
suggests
a total around the 46 points mark (Patriots averages 22 points scored per
game whereas the Chiefs average 24 points per game). In terms of average
points allowed per game, the picture is no different, since the Patriots
defence on average allow 25 points against per game with the number for
the
Chiefs being 21. Both teams have only once in their last five games
recorded more than 51 total match points and with the Patriots defence
strengthened after Bruschi’s return its hard to see the reason for the
line
at 51 in this match which you can bet on live via our brand new live
‘In-Play Console’.
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs - Under 51 points @ -110
PITTSBÙRGH STEELERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
BET LIVE IN PLAY – Mo Nov 28 – 9:00 pm (ABC)/Tu Nov 29 – 02:00 GMT
The Monday night game features a classic match-up between two of the
hottest contenders for the AFC title, when the Colts host the Steelers
who
will likely welcome back Big Ben Roethlisberger at the QB position. With
an
outstanding firework of offence, the Colts out-scored the Bengals in an
emphatic first half on Sunday night, but as it has been the case in
recent
weeks, the Indy defence did not slam the door shot allowing a close game
until very late in the third.
Looking at the last five games, Indy are giving up 24.6 defensive points
on
average, with teams like the Texans scoring 17 and 20 points and the Rams
putting up 28 points against them before only a super display by Manning
and his receivers was enough to see off Bengal’s 37 points on Sunday. Big
Ben will be likely to exploit such defensive gaps and personally I think
that this could make this game a lot tighter than most people think.
Steelers are 7-3 for the season and 4-1 on the road, and its worth
mentioning that they have won the last 9 straight games against the
Colts,
four of them with coach Bill Cowher calling the shots on the sideline.
Surely the recent defensive display from the Colts along with Big Ben’s
return does not justify a line of 8.5 points, and I would not even rule
out
the big upset. However I will remain sensible and recommend Steelers on
the
handicap in this Monday night football clash which you can also bet on
live
through our ‘In-Play Console’.
Pick 2: Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5) @ -110.
GET MORE BACK FOR HITTING YOUR PARLAYS
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We’ll be backing all our picks in singles (as serious bettors should),
but
it’s hard to resist a speculative parlay wager each weekend, especially
as
you’re assured of getting an extra value here at bet365 with our Parlay
Bonus. Each week, we pay out up to 50% more on successful NFL & NCAAF
parlays on the following 6 markets:-
Point Spread, Game Total, First Half Point Spread, Second Half Point
Spread, First Half Total, Second Half Total.
This weekend’s suggested parlay is on the following teams:
Seattle (-4.5); NE Patriots @ KC Chiefs (under 51 points); PIT Steelers
(+8.5) TB Buccaneers (-3.0). All teams apart from Tampa Bay are currently
priced at -110 (TB Buccaneers at +105), and a $50 parlay pays out
$785.63
- which includes a bet365 bonus of 10%
BET IT LIVE WITH 365
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You can’t beat the adrenaline rush of the live game, and that’s when our
In-Play service kicks in via our new ‘In-Play Console’, which has all the
odds and markets on one convenient page (just click on the link on the
top
left-hand side of the home page). With the Thanksgiving match-up’s bet365
will cover an additional two live NFL games this week, so there is no
excuse for missing out, since you will have the option to bet on a
massive
6 games live In-Play! This week’s live games are:
ATL Falcons @ DET Lions
Live betting – Th Nov 24 – 12:30 pm EST/17:30 GMT
DEN Broncos @ DAL Cowboys
Live betting – Th Nov 24 – 4:15 pm EST/21:15 GMT
NE Patriots @ KC Chiefs
Live betting – Su Nov 27 – 1:00 pm EST/18:00 GMT
NY Giants @ Seattle Seahawks
Live betting – Su Nov 27 – 4:15 pm EST/21:15 GMT
NO Saints @ NY Jets
Live betting – Su Nov 27 – 8:30 pm EST/Mo Nov 28 - 01:30 GMT
PIT Steelers @ IND Colts
Live betting – Mo Nov 28 – 9:00 pm EST (ABC)/Tu Nov 29 – 02:00 GMT
Good luck in Week 12.
Pick ‘em lucky!
Allan
Please be aware that prices are subject to change. All times are subject
to change. Check local listings.
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