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Pick'em Up
Fri, 12 Jan 2006
Pick’em Up with Allan Drost of bet365
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NFL
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TIME TO BACK THE OUTSIDERS
With the Wild Card Weekend behind us, it will be all about the race for the
Divisional titles in AFC and NFC respectively over the coming two weeks.
The weekend saw a clean sweep for all the NFL-picks advertised by bet365’s
Nigel Ridgway in last week’s Get In The Game and the $50 parlay on Carolina
(+2.5), Washington (+2.5), Pittsburgh (-3.0) and ‘Under 37 points’ in the
Patriots game was also right on the money and paid out $747.15, which
included a bet365 bonus of 10%!
So 8 teams are still on route to The Big Show in Florida on February 5th
and a tasty looking match-up for the Conference semi finals this weekend
(where you can bet on all 4 games Live In-Play with bet365) should ensure
plenty of excitement in front of the TV. Looking at potential smokers of
the big cigar, its worth noting that bet365 has the best price on the
market on the Patriots to win the AFC at generous 5.75 and the schedule
ahead of them does not look impossible, although it would take two away
wins to get them that far. However Brady’s consistency and the stone-cold
mind of Coach Bill Belichick along with an outstanding 10-0 play-off record
over the last 3 seasons, tells a tale of a team that knows how to win when
the going gets tough.
ARE YOU BACKING BRADY @ bet365?
Pats comfortably saw off the JAX on Saturday night, Brady had perhaps his
most impressive of many seasons on QB, this year adding the long throws to
an impressive repertoire and Sunday saw another outstanding display by the
defence which only allowed a single FG and sacked JAX QB, B. Leftwich 6
times for a total loss of 42 yards in the Wild Card game. Obviously Broncos
will be a different matter, but in 10 attempts no team has gotten past
Brady and Belichick in the post-season and I can’t see why it’d be likely
to happen on Saturday either with a team that apart from losing with a
reserve-roster to Miami in week 17 has not lost a game since late November.
Obviously Indianapolis are still heavy favourites for the divisional title,
but firstly they are up for a big test against the Steelers. Secondly it’s
actually been a full 4 weeks since the last impressive Colts performance.
This could obviously work either way, but in a one-off winner-takes-all
between a red-hot Patriots and a slightly over-fancied Colts (and that’s IF
they see it past the Steelers which is no certainty either, making a saver
on the Steelers @ 11.00 with us, which is also un-rivalled in the market, a
decent option), I certainly know where my money is going, especially
thinking back to last season where the situation was exactly the same
before the Colts were completely closed down losing 20-3 in the Divisional
play-off game to… New England!
Latest Outright prices on the AFC from bet365 is IND Colts @ 1.57, DEN
Broncos @ 4.50, NE Patriots @ 5.75 (best price!) and PIT Steelers @
11.00.
As for the battle in the NFC, bet365’s price of 5.25 on the Panthers is
also amongst the highest available out there. Panthers know what it takes
to get all the way through, as they did it only a couple of seasons – also
back then after having taken the slight de-tour through the Wild
Card-games. The total thrashing of the Giants on Sunday where Jake Delhomme
let the team to a total of 335 offensive yards through possessing the ball
for more than 42 out of the total 60 minutes of play was expected and much
fancied here at bet365, and surely the Bears must be on their toes in order
not to get ‘skinned’ in the late game on Sunday by a Panthers outfit that
seemingly improve game for game, much like a couple of seasons ago.
bet365’s Outright prices on the NFC are SEA Seahawks @ 1.72, CHI Bears @
3.75, CAR Panthers @ 5.25 and WAS Redskins @ 11.00.
WAS Redskins @ SEA Seahawks
Live Betting – Sa Jan 14 – 5:30pm ET
Seahawks haven’t lost at home this season and the Redskins only managed a
total of 120 offensive yards in a tight Wild Card game against the
Buccaneers.
Seahawks (13-3) haven’t lost at home this season. Should be easy, right!?
Wrong! Divisional playoff games are NEVER easy, Redskins are on a 6-0
winning streak and they beat Seattle 20-17 through an OT field goal in week
5. Furthermore, on Saturday they were up against a better defence than that
of the Seattle Seahawks, they have proved that they can contain Shaun
Alexander who was only allowed a total of 98 rushing yards in week 4.
Apart from Alexander, the Seahawks don’t have anyone coming even close to
the 1000 offensive yards mark for the season and in any case, the 9 points
advantage available at bet365 seems very big indeed against a team that I
personally think is over-rated and hugely dependent on one single player.
Sure, Alexander’s 1880 offensive yards for the season is impressive, but if
anyone knows how to contain him, it is Gregg Williams, probably the best
defensive coordinator in the NFL for which he was rewarded last week with a
new contract and a big, fat pay-check!
With the likes of Clinton Portis and Santana Moss to lead the team on
offence, they will definitely put points on the board, and I wouldn’t even
rule out the upset (which is priced at a massive 4.25 with us). The safest
bet, however, seems to be settling for Redskins with the 9 points
advantage.
bet365 Pick: Redskins +9 @ 1.90
NE Patriots @ DEN Broncos
Live Betting – Sa Jan 14 - 9.00pm ET
The Patriots have really stepped up their game in recent weeks and Brady is
looking as impressive as ever. Forget about the tales from the past about a
Patriots that predominantly keep the ball on the ground to pick up short
yardage. Brady has gone airborne, passing for more than 4000 yards for the
season, which is amongst the highest in the league. Whereas many would say
that this is a sign of Brady having matured, I’d argue that it’s a sign of
Belichick successfully managing to improve a team which has won three
Superbowls on the stretch – namely in the pass-protection area. That
combined with having a quarterback capable of throwing the football to any
square inch of the pitch is bound to be a recipe for success and could hurt
the Broncos where they are vulnerable, namely against the pass!
Admittedly, a trip to Denver is not among the most heavily fancied at the
moment. Broncos are 8-1 from the last nine and beat Patriots 28-20 in week
6. However a look through the tapes suggests that the Patriots-outfit that
day was very different to the one turning up on Sunday, since neither Corey
Dillon, nor Kevin Faulk, Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi or Ellis Hobbs was
in the line-up. As such the Broncos offence will not be likely to better
the 178 offensive yards from week 6 and with Brady alone averaging about
235 passing yards per game, the fact that Broncos this year has a negative
net passing record (Broncos passed for 3227 yards in total in the regular
season while their opponents totalled 3643…) and the likes of Corey Dillon
getting involved along the ground as well, one would have to fancy Patriots
and give them the edge here. Bet365 is EVS on Patriots +3 and that is not
bettered by anyone in the market.
bet365 Pick: Patriots +3 @ 2.00 (best price!)
PIT Steelers @ IND Colts
Live Betting – Sa Jan 14 - 1.00pm ET
The Pittsburgh defence will need all their skill when squaring off with the
Colts if they are to contain Peyton Manning, but that is by no means an
impossible task. The Colts have struggled to keep tight on defence when
facing teams with a winning record this season and apart from a scrappy win
against the Cardinals in week 17, its actually been 4 weeks since the last
impressive Colts victory in the NFL. The Steelers are coming off a good win
at Cincinatti against the Bengals, they have won 5 games in a row, where
they have only given up an average of 10 points per game – very impressive
indeed!!
At the same time Big Ben seems to have overcome his injury-worries and the
Steelers offence lead by ‘Fast Wille’ Parker, Duce Staley, Veron Haynes and
Jerome ‘The Bus’ Bettis seems to have gotten into gear! The two teams met
earlier this season where Roethlisberger was held to a season-low total of
7 points, but that was Big Bens first game back after the knee surgery that
sidelined him for three weeks in the middle of the season and certainly the
Steelers seem much more potent at present. The biggest problem for the
Steelers might be handling the noise-level which will be insane at the RCA
Dome on Sunday. However I am confident that the slightly match-rusty Colts
starters will be held on a leash by the best 6th seed in the NFC for a
long, long while.
bet365 Pick: Steelers +9.5 @ 1.90
CAR Panthers @ CHI Bears
Live Betting – Sa Jan 14 - 5.30pm ET
Get ready for the toughest defensive battle of the season! Chicago Bears
defensive capabilities have been well proven throughout the season, and the
Panthers proved against the Giants that they are not far behind at all, not
conceding as much as a single point for the first time this season against
a team that only once in the last 11 games put less than 20 points on the
board! With that in mind, this is almost guaranteed to be a low-scoring
affair, just like it was the case in week 11, where Chicago won 13-3 at
home. The totals line with bet365 is not surprisingly set to just 30
points, but still there seems to be value in the UNDER 30 points @ 1.90,
which will get the shout for me in this game. Gun to my head on the spread,
I (and many others, judging from the movement in the market) could see the
Panthers take advantage of the home field and edge out the Bears –
especially with a 3-point advantage, but as this has been backed down to
1.80 (from 1.90) with us, the value seems to be on UNDER the 30 total
points in the game, as both teams are likely to continue what they do best:
Keep it tight on defence and avoid to lose the game through penalties and
offensive errors.
bet365 Pick: UNDER 30.0 @ 1.90
bet365 latest Super Bowl prices … Indianapolis 2.00, Seattle 4.50, Denver
8.00, New England 8.50, Chicago 13.00, Carolina 15.00, Pittsburgh 17.00,
Washington 34.00
GET MORE BACK FOR HITTING YOUR PARLAYS
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This weekend, as always, it’s a good idea to have a speculative parlay
wager on our four selections, especially as you’re assured of getting an
extra value here at
bet365 with our Parlay Bonus. Each week, we pay out up to 50% more on
successful football and basketball parlays on the following 6 markets:-
1. Point Spread
2. Game Total
3. First Half Point Spread
4. Second Half Point Spread
5. First Half Total
6. Second Half Total
A $50 parlay on Washington (+9), Patriots (+3), Pittsburgh (+9.5) and
‘Under’ 30 points in the Panthers game pays out $754.49 - which includes
a bet365 bonus of 10%
Good luck to everyone following!
Allan Drost, bet365
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